In this first chart, each red and gray dot represents a game. On the bottom, or X, axis is the point spread between the winning team's score and the losing team's score. On the left, or Y, axis is the explanatory variable, which in this first chart is the number of first downs by the winning team. For example, the dot on the bottom represents a game where the winning team had only ten first downs but still won by a margin of one point.
The equation in the chart is y = 0.205x + 15.92. That means on average, even if x = 0, then y = 15.92, or that given everything else, the winning team makes about 16 first downs. Every additional five points equals another first down. Below that is an R-squared for the relationship between X and Y variables in the equation, which in this case equals 0.2133.
As you can see from the formula R squared in the charts, first downs had a bigger correlation than total yards (o.21 versus 0.04). In other words, first downs matter more than total yards in an SEC game! Wow, I thought the amount of yards accumulated in a game would matter the most. Also, the correlation for total yards is very small, total yards don't have a big impact in an SEC game at all. However, first downs have a much bigger correlation than total yards do, first downs mean a lot in SEC games!
To sum it all up, total yards don't have a significant impact in an SEC game, but first downs really change the game!
Next Up: Rushing yards and Turnovers, which one has the bigger correlation?
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