Points and Yard Difference

Although we have found the correlation for first downs, total yards, turnovers, and rushing yards, we still have three more charts to post. There are two charts we will post today, for points and yard difference. Here is the chart for offensive points scored ... I am expecting a big correlation from this one.

This chart, as I expected, shows a big correlation. Winning teams scored as many as 52 points, and as few as 24 points. Because its correlation is slightly smaller than rushing yards does not mean rushing yards are more important than points. By correlation it does, but I think points has causation, which means it really does cause victory in a game. The team that has more points wins the game, but the team that has more rushing yards doesn't win all the time. The team with more points wins all the time. Now, here is the chart for yard difference.

As you can see, the correlation for yard difference is small. In fact, one team got 120 fewer yards than its opponent, but still scored more points. Well, one more point! I am not surprised at the weak relationship between yards difference and points difference since the correlation for total yards was small as well.

My theory is that points is the only variable that has causation in a game's point spread, which means it is the only variable that can really determine who is the winner. For example, Team A can have more rushing yards, passing yards, and less turnovers, but if they socre only 7 points and Team B scores 9 points, who wins? Team B does. I also learned that total yard differnece doesn't have much of an impact on an SEC game.

Next Up: Passing Yards, how will the correlation for this one go?