Now that we have shown you the correlation of total yards and first downs with point spread in an SEC game, let's see how important rushing yards and turnovers are. Here is the rushing yards chart:
As you can see, the correlation for rushing yards (R-squared equals 0.37) is huge! I didn't know rushing yards were so important in an SEC game! Rushing yards has the biggest correlation so far, and its correlation is greater than first down's and total yard's correlations combined. However, here is the chart for turnovers.
Turnovers, as you might have noticed, has a negative correlation with the point spread. Makes sense. It just means that the more turnovers you commit, the smaller amount of points you will score. The equation line seems to indicate that two turnovers can cost you a game, but only one is survivable. Turnovers have more value than first downs, which I expected, but the R=squared is smaller than rushing yard's value, which surprised me.
From these charts, I learned that the more rushing yards you have in a game, the higher the point spread. I also learned that rushing yards are more important than turnovers, which for me at least, is hard to believe. Does it make sense? Maybe. But let's wait to see all the results before we conduct an anlysis. For the time being, remember that "Correlation is not causation." Maybe it is the point spread causing higher rushing attempts and yards.
Next Up: Points and Yard Difference, will there be another shocker?
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